Guiding Principles

I've worked pretty hard my whole life. I've been pretty lucky to live abroad for nearly 7 years now in the middle of Europe. While the world is moving in a dangerous direction and it may feel like everything around you is changing, it's important you find your own way and stick with it. Here are 10 guiding principles I always try to keep in mind. Maybe they are also helpful for you ...

1. Discipline: No matter how good you are, once your ego inflates its over. This rule of thumb applies to pretty much anything in life. The market is bigger and faster than you, there will always be talent better than you coming through the university next door. Understand this early.
2. Failure: Embrace it and don't be shy. The secret is to ensure you don't repeat the same mistakes over and over. Therefore, think deeply about where and how you went wrong. People who don’t spend a lot of time talking about their failures and focus on only on wins which can be a negative signal.
3. Risk: All risk management models are wrong, some are useful. Use some fancy model if you want but anticipate when and how it might break and what signals suggest it is breaking.
4. Streaks: They are real. When on a hot streak of luck, consider increasing your gumption and chutzpah in general, whatever it may be that you are working on or focused on. Size down when you are cold and confidence is low. Be self-aware as much as possible. Ideally, any big life decisions should not be influenced by the streak.
5. Group think is real: It is intellectually cool to not be with the crowd but the crowd makes money 80% of the time. Understand this and think through your position carefully. Contrarian thinking can be a trap, if you are not careful. Know when to "go-against" vs "go-with" the crowd.
6. Change: It's happening all the time and it never stops. Don't kid yourself. Those who can not adjust to change will be swept aside by it. Those who recognize change and react accordingly will benefit.
7. Value Levers: When looking at any business you want to work for, invest in or simply admire. Ask yourself, what are the value levers? Ideally, the business has a) excess returns, b) reinvestment opportunities, c) a duration of competitive advantage, d) lower percieved business risk threat. If you have these levers in robust positions. Go for it. You are going to spend alot of hours in this business. Make it count.
8. Circle of Competence: It's great to know many things. But know your edge and stick to it. Else risk being runover by others more in the know.
9. Self Belief: When my first ski lesson happened as a child, my ski instructor pushed me down the hill with minimal instruction and shouted "trust your skis". I managed to get down the hill in one piece. There is a lesson in this. Believe in yourself and anything is possible.
10. Chaos: It's happening everywhere and all the time. That's the world we live in and that's life. When everything around you is on fire and in dire straits - always, always focus on the long-term and manifest. Picture your happy ending or your tropical island.